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Fog at Sea; Which Port Is Cable Sailing To?

by David Mercer | 3月 07, 2012

Former President of the European Parliament Pat Cox closed this morning's keynote at Cable Congress 2012 in Brussels by alluding to Roman Emperor Seneca the Younger's warning: "if man does not know to what port he is sailing, no wind is favourable." He was speaking in reference to the never-ending travails of the European Union as it seeks to resolve its financial problems. But he might as well have been commenting on the state of the European cable industry.

Europe's cable TV subscriber base has been flat for many years, although it has had some success in growing TV ARPUs. According to this morning"s press conference at Cable Congress in Brussels the fastest growth is now in broadband data, at least in the German market, where cable broadband had a very slow start.

Manuel Cubero, COO of Kabel Deutschland, made a telling remark when he said that the German cable industry now thinks of broadband customers using OTT video services as its own video customers, and in that context the cable industry’s video or TV customer base is growing.

Cable has always been the original broadband pipe, with the potential to offer video, television, communications, data and advanced services like smart home, all using the same network access platform. But while this inherent multi-service capability has always been seen as a strength, has it also obscured the industry's direction? If cable operators are now happy to accept customers who only pay for data as though they were video customers, what business is cable in?

As our research has shown, cable TV is caught in a pincer movement between higher value, technology-leading satellite services, and free DTT. It’s understandable that cable operators want to emphasise broadband as their growth opportunity, but at the same time I have heard a lot today about video being central to their future. Messages do seem to be somewhat mixed.

During the next panel discussion Mike Fries of Liberty Global touched on the old question of whether cable operators are in the content business. He indicated that cable certainly intended to expand its presence in content. He made the interesting point that cable's primary competitor, in all markets including the US, is free-to-air. So as cable navigates stormy seas, if it is defined primarily in relation to its main competitor this suggests that cable's port can be described as simply getting people to pay for something, or possibly anything.

That conclusion is clearly unsatisfactory so I am on the lookout for further guidance on cable's strategy and direction over the next couple of days. In the worst case perhaps we will just conclude that the sea fog is so thick that we can't even see where we are going, never mind know where and when we are expected to arrive.

David Mercer

 

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