Further signs that the next gen DVD format war is swinging decisively towards Blu-Ray - in spite of all Sony's problems with PS3. Toshiba yesterday cut its US 2007 HD-DVD sales forecast to 1 million players, having previously cited a 1.8 million target. The reason, according to Toshiba's Digital Media Networks CEO, was "slower than expected sales". This seems to me a bit like saying "it's raining because it's raining". I think the 1 million target is still way too optimistic. Only 150,000 HD-DVD players have been sold in the first 14 months on the market, so it will take a tremendous ramp-up to sell another 850,000 in just 7 months. Prices are falling, of course, but HD-DVD hasn't even faced serious competition from BD players yet, and when the sub-$500 BD machines start appearing on store shelves we'll see exactly which way the wind is blowing. The issue now is how much more money Toshiba can afford to pour into its role as primary HD-DVD promoter. By the end of this year it will clearly be the minority format as far as players and titles are concerned. As we have suggested all along, I suspect the company will find refuge in highlighting HD-DVD's role as a PC upgrade. Whatever the decision, we should expect strategy shifts before too long.