According to our latest 3D research, more than a third of homes in both the US and Europe will own a 3D-ready TV within the next 3 years. Household penetration of 3DTVs will be slightly higher in Europe (42%) than the US (34%). We also project rapid adoption of a wide range of other 3D-ready devices, include set-top boxes, Blu-ray Disc players, games consoles and portable devices (including phone handsets). A detailed forecast chart is available here.

This market is being driven by industry push as much as consumer pull: manufacturers such as Panasonic, Sony and Samsung will be driving 3D capability through much of their TV product line-ups over the next couple of years, so many TV buyers will be buying 3D-ready TVs whether they specifically ask for them or not. A major question therefore is how often those 3DTV owners will actually put on their glasses (active or passive...) to watch 3D-originated content. Given the current paucity of 3D channels and even 3D Blu-ray discs, the answer would have to be "very rarely".

So with 3D device adoption growing rapidly, it's now up to content developers and distributors (ie broadcasters, network operators) to feed those devices. Hollywood's continued enthusiasm for 3D cinema releases offers some encouragement that 3DTV movie channels have a future for the home-based user. Likewise, the significant investments in 3D production by major sports rights holders like BSkyB should seed the market for 3D sports channels.

But as we have pointed out previously there are risks to the 3DTV opportunity, not least the increasing prevalence and improving quality of in-home 2D-3D conversion technologies, as well as the lack of true 3D-originated content for broadcast availability. The technology vendors are doing their bit: it's now over to the content producers to make the most of the opportunity.

David Mercer

Client Reading: Global 3D Enabled Device Sales Forecast