We expect global smartphone market will see significant decline by both volume and revenue in 2020, hit badly by the global pandemic of COVID-19. We forecast global smartphone wholesale revenues will drop -21% YoY in 2020.

We expect global smartphone wholesale ASP however will remain flat in 2020. The global pandemic has been impacting consumers spending as well as their perceived utility and emotional appeal on pricy devices, but these negative impacts on global smartphone ASP is likely to be offset by the following factors:

• Android vendors’ relentless efforts on portfolio uplifts for profits;
• Industry consolidation, major OEMs will take more ground at the expense of small players;
• iPhone SE (2020) penetrating down towards US$300-400 price tier and the upcoming 5G iPhones combined will lift Apple’s volume share this year, and
• 5G ramping volumes in major markets including China, United States, South Korea, and Japan

We expect the rebound in smartphone market will start from 2021 onwards, but it will take three or four years to back to pre-COVID-19 level. We believe the recovery of global economy from COVID-19 will take a deep U shape rather a rapid V shape.

China, United States, India, and Japan will remain as the top 4 countries by smartphone wholesale revenue. Japan and South Korea will continue to lead ASP during the forecast window, while some Africa Middle East countries will generate the world's lowest ones.

Our latest report Global Smartphone Revenues and ASP Forecasts by 88 Countries: 2012 to 2025 was published. The data report in excel format can be downloaded here, while analysis report in pdf format can be downloaded here.