China Mobile -- the world's largest cellular carrier -- recently said publicly it expects to soft-launch 5G networks and devices in up to five Chinese cities during 2017, with a stated goal to hard-launch 5G services in the country by 2020.

This chimes with a recent forecast from our Emerging Device Strategies (EDS) service, which shows China, Japan, South Korea, Sweden and the US to be among the first-mover 5G countries for device shipments during the 2020 and 2021 timeframe.

However, despite the new, bullish predictions from China Mobile, we caution that delays and late launches are a common theme of major new mobile technologies. We have seen 2G, 3G and 4G networks all delayed during the past 30 years of evolution. It would thus be no surprise to also see 5G delayed by a few months or even a year when it finally goes commercial. China Mobile should not get too wedded to its 2020 5G goal.