5G was off to a great start in the first year, 2019, and the year 2020 is shaping up be the year of 5G.  Qualcomm, the cellular baseband processor and cellular radio chipset market leader, has established itself as the early 5G market leader.  Besides 5G market share gains, Qualcomm has also made significant gains in product performance as shown in recent Ookla speed test results in the U.S. and U.K:

• As shown in two blogs by Qualcomm here and here, millimeter wave (mmW) 5G smartphones in general outperform 4G LTE devices in terms of data rates on the order of twenty times. The fastest devices use Qualcomm’s 5G modems and mmW RF antenna-in-package (AIP) modules.
• Test results in the UK show that Qualcomm-equipped 5G smartphones offer the fastest data speeds in the sub-6 GHz bands as well.
• The fastest smartphones overall, across 5G and 4G models in the US and UK, use Qualcomm solutions.

The results bolster the assertion that operators need both sub-6 GHz and mmW for their 5G networks, with mmW filling out high-density traffic areas, boosting 5G network capacity overall using smartphones and other user devices.  The on-going COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated remote working and learning trends, emphasizing the need for more capacity and data rates from 5G network operators.  It is not too surprising then that 5G adoption around the world is accelerating, given 5G’s critical role in providing wireless capacity.  Strategy Analytics projects that over 200 million 5G smartphones will ship this year, and that next year, more than 50  million will ship, making up 46 percent of all smartphones shipping in 2021.

As of July 31, 2020, only Qualcomm was shipping mmW-capable chipsets and mmW RF subsystems (mmW RF antenna-in-package or AIP modules) for 5G devices.  Next year Huawei, Samsung, and MediaTek could introduce mmW cellular radio chipsets and mmW RF subsystems, but Qualcomm has a technical lead and at least an 18 month head start in market.

Our research suggests that 23 of the 185 shipping smartphone variants that support 5G include mmW support.  All of these mmW phones use Qualcomm cellular radio chipsets and Qualcomm mmW RF components.  Ten countries have assigned 5G millimeter wave spectrum as of July 2020, and many more will soon follow.  Thirty five operators have adopted 5G mmW, and more than 95 other wireless operators are investing in it.

All of the fastest 5G phones in the tests used Qualcomm Snapdragon modem-RF systems.  This means that the phones not only employed cellular radio chipsets from Qualcomm, but they also incorporated RF front-end (RFFE) components from Qualcomm: By providing the complete cellular radio from the antenna to the processor, Qualcomm can tightly couple the functional design of different parts of the radio, optimizing the modem as a system.  RFFE suppliers Skyworks, Qorvo, Broadcom and Murata have extensive experience, and provide low-cost, high-performance RF front-end components for smartphones as well, but Qualcomm has had remarkable success in the RF front end in the first two generations of 5G smartphones.

Qualcomm’s success in 5G and RFFE is already having a positive impact on its financials.  Strategy Analytics estimates that Qualcomm shipped more 5G basebands in Q1 2020 than it did in all of 2019, many of these with Qualcomm RFFEs.  Qualcomm has guided that its RFFE revenue will grow to $750 million in Q3 CY 2020, and has said that its goal is to reach 20 percent market share in the RFFE, which as they are defining the market, includes mmW modules used in phones.

So far, only Qualcomm  has had  the  scale and expertise  to provide  successful  system-level  modem-to-antenna solutions  for  mobile  phones.  There is evidence that other cellular radio chipset providers may be moving in this direction, especially in China.

Qualcomm’s scale and its early success in mmW 5G and RF front-end coupled with the latest speed test results lead us to recommend that network operators should highlight smartphones that use Qualcomm chipsets and complete Snapdragon modem-RF systems to improve customer satisfaction, accelerate use of 5G networks and enhance 5G ROI.  Handset manufacturers should evaluate multiple sources of radio components for 5G smartphones, but consider modem-to-antenna solutions such as Snapdragon modem-RF systems.  We believe that consumers will also benefit.

Our full 17-page complimentary report on this can be accessed here.

Note: Thanks to Sravan Kundojjala for drafting the original version of this blog.