The latest forecast for global games console adoption from my colleague Eric Smithquantifies the scale of Sony’s impending victory in the latest generation. We predicted the PS4’s victory several months before both it and the Xbox One were launched. At that time our consumer surveys were showing, as we put it, a “50% lead” for PS4. The fact that our detailed models are now predicting that there will be 40% more PS4s in use than Xbox Ones in 2019 is amazingly close to that early prediction.

To confirm the details, the global active installed base of Sony’s PS4 is predicted to reach 80.0M units by 2019, compared to 57.0M for Microsoft’s Xbox One, a lead of 40%. Both consoles will be near the peak of their life cycle at that time, although there will be room for further modest growth.

There is positive news for all console vendors, however, in the strength of the games consoles business overall. We have heard so often over the past 10-20 years that the console’s days are numbered, with various reasons being cited, most recently the “inevitability” of cloud gaming and competition from mobile devices. In spite of those apparent threats the demand for premium quality TV-based games seems to be as strong as ever, and doom-mongers have had to eat their words once again.  

Nintendo’s Wii U will trail a long way behind its rivals – it is looking more and more like Nintendo struck lucky with the original Wii, after failing with the GameCube and now the Wii U. Nintendo must decide if it is going to let the console business remain a two-way battle when the next generation comes along – I suspect it won’t but it will be sorely hurt by its latest experience.