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DVD Dead in 3 Years?

by User Not Found | Mar 19, 2007

That's what the Blu-ray Disc Association's Frank Simonis would have us believe. I assume he doesn't mean that I will be able to buy a BD player for $25 in 2010. And if he does, I hope Philips shareholders aren't listening... Remember when DVD players cost $800? No? It was a long time ago, and it didn't last long. When they were launched in 1997 it seemed impossible that DVD would replace VHS (that's an old tape format your grandmother might have used), well, ever, never mind within 10 years. But then few people, and least of all the device manufacturers, wanted you to know that the price of a player would plummet through $200, $100 and $50 price points like a stone. Can it happen again with Blu-ray? Sony recently announced its BDP-S300 priced at $599, which is essentially the same as a device that recently cost $999, and predicted $500 players before next Christmas. My bet is we'll see them below that level, if not from premium brands. So it seems we are on at least as fast a track as DVD, and by 2010 the $100 Blu-ray player should be with us. Will that be enough to kill DVD by then? Given the huge DVD installed base, I doubt it, but it might well be feeling the first signs of old age.
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