Media & Services Blog

The app market continues to grow. In the last year virtual goods and subscription business models have joined paid downloads and advertising as critical revenue drivers for the ecosystem. In fact, the app market will exceed $35B thru 2017 as seen in the chart below as the ecosystem is fueled by new business models, broader device penetration, and continued consumer interest in apps.

Some key findings from our forecast:

• More than 350B downloads from 2008 - 2017
• Revenue from apps will exceed $35B by 2017
• The Apple app store and Google Play will account for most of the revenue developers earn during the forecast period
• Paid downloads begin to decline in 2014 and lose their dominance as a % of the total revenue stream during the forecast period

In order to provide the granular data our clients expect we have re-vamped our apps forecast - improved the methodology - and will now be publishing several models - each broken down by storefront (ie BlackBerry App World) and device type (ie Tablet). The forecast has also been extended to 2017. The models include:

1. Revenue Forecast. This model will provide the revenue earned frome each revenue stream (paid downloads, in-app advertising, virtual goods sales, and subscription) as well as market share data for each of the storefronts (i.e. Google Play, Amazon, etc.)
2. Downloads Forecast. This model provides the number of free and paid apps for each of the storefronts, download ASP, market share data, and revenue from paid downloads
3. Virtual Goods Forecast. This model provides insight into the number of VG transactions per platform, ASP of virtual goods, and revenue from virtual goods
4. In-App Advertising Forecast. This model provides a view of the number of impressions for each platform, the CPM for these impressions, and the total revenue generated by in-app advertising
5. Subscription Revenue. This model provides the number of active subscriptions, the ASP of each subscription, and the total revenue generated by subscriptions
6. Category Forecast. Leveraging data from our AppTRAX database we will provide a look at the number of free and paid downloads per category for several storefronts as well as download revenue

Overall, these new models will provide clients with unprecedented insight into the apps market. The Strategy Analytics Report Mobile App Revenue Forecast 2008 - 2017 has already been published and is avalable for App Ecosystem Opportunity clients. The remaining models will be published throughout November.

For further information on the forecasts please e-mail JMartin@strategyanalytics.com.