Media & Services Blog

The rumors have been swirling for weeks about Apple's much hyped press event today. You can't peruse the web without some prognostication about Apple's pending announcements. Most of those speculations have focused on hardware, but I believe Apple will also share some app-related findings that will continue to establish iOS as the premier platform for content owners, publishers and any company seeking engaged app users.

• More than 105B downloads. In June, Apple noted that the App Store had exceeded 100B downloads. Now, just 2 months later our new forecast model predicts another 6B+ being added to the tally. That's more than 85M downloads per day! There is a small chance Apple could announce 110B+ downloads. If this happens it means app downloads continue to accelerate at a nearly unthinkable pace. The accelerating downloads will help Apple further cement the need to support the Apple Watch and rumored Apple TV.
• More than $35B Paid to Developers. Just last month, Apple noted the App Store had its best month ever. We expect that trend to continue. In fact, our forecast model shows an increase in overall app ASP over the last several years - which must be heartening for publishers looking to monetize their efforts. Apple's ability to monetize users despite moving deeper into emerging markets where ASP pressure should limit upside positions iOS as the platform for generating revenue. Even though Apple famously take 30% of revenue from services signed-up to through its store we think the market expansion it offers to publishers/content owners makes this a winning proposition. This is especially important as Apple positions itself as the channel for new content such as News and Music.
• Native Facebook apps for Apple Watch. After the initial flurry of Apple Watch support began to ebb in April a slow trickle of support continued. However, many of the biggest holdouts have still not supported the Apple Watch. With Watch OS2 being released soon (we expect) Apple needs to regain momentum. I predict we will see an announcement of Facebook building native apps for the Apple Watch. This is essential as Facebook has 4 of the top 5 most popular apps. It may not release its entire portfolio but Instagram, Messenger and Facebook make the most early sense to test the market. I expect other big companies to announce apps as well.
• More Native Apple Apps extend to the Watch (and TV). Apple touted the Watch as the perfect vehicle for the news. And while many organizations have released apps few have done it spectacularly (although there are several good efforts). I expect Apple will announce its new News app will be available on the Apple Watch as a means to control the experience while ensuring high quality up-to-date news on the Watch. The same goes for TV (a stretch here) - a personalized video experience based on the news sources you have selected on the News app. This extends the ecosystem, creates a more personalized experience and allows Apple to offer new revenue opportunities to partners.

And don't forget about ad-blocking coming to iOS 9 which I have postulated is a conspiracy to drive content owners from the mobile web to native apps.