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Is Monkeypox the New Covid?

by Neil Mawston | May 22, 2022

Alarm about the global spread of the monkeypox virus has soared in recent days.

At least 14 countries now report an outbreak, up from 1 just a few weeks ago.

US President Biden has said it is a "concern for everybody". Belgium -- home of the EU -- has introduced compulsory monkeypox quarantine. The World Health Organization (WHO) says it could accelerate swiftly across Europe.

This is a multi-country outbreak in non-endemic countries.

The WHO says monkeypox virus is transmitted from one person to another by close contact with lesions, body fluids, respiratory droplets, and contaminated materials such as bedding. Symptoms are not dissimilar to smallpox. Case fatality ratio (CFR) ranges wildly from 0% to 11%. The incubation period can be from 6 to 21 days.

This looks -- to some -- like it might be a repeat of Covid.

A worryingly transmissible virus sweeps the globe, shuts down commerce, and lots of people get sick.

If a second pandemic were to re-occur, what would happen to smartphone shipments?

As you would expect, smartphone shipments will tumble.

If borders, stores and consumers are once again locked down, the industry will find it (much) harder to supply and buy smartphones. Global shipments could potentially fall as much as 10-20% in the coming quarters.

Of course, it is important NOT to be alarmist. We hope for the best, that the new wave fizzles out, no variants arise, and illness is quickly treated or minimized.  Most adult cases so far have been mild. Some countries have indirect vaccines. Some epidemiologists think this monkeypox ripple will peak by June.

But -- for now -- the drumbeat of monkeypox cases is suddenly getting much louder. Covid is fresh in the memory. Alarm bells are starting to ring.

This is an event we are monitoring very closely.

Exhibit 1: Global Monkeypox Cases on May 21, 2022

Source: World Health Organization

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