Strategy Analytics has lowered global smartphone shipment forecast in 2022 and 2023 amid the escalating Ukraine-Russia war.

The escalating Ukraine war is still on the early stage. It is changing very quickly and hard to predict how it will evolve and end. Meanwhile, multiple sanctions imposed against Russia financial and semiconductor sector are under development as well. Based on all available info at this moment, Strategy Analytics has come up with the scenario model forecast to analyze how different scenarios will impact global smartphone market.

Under the best scenario (SA forecast model), we predict global smartphone shipments will only grow +1% YoY in 2022. The growth rate will improved to +3% YoY in 2023.Central Eastern Europe will take a hit badly, followed by Western Europe. All vendors are facing big headwinds, especially the major players in Russia and Ukraine amid the devastating war. Meanwhile, we expect the impact on smartphone manufacture and supply chain under this scenario would remain limited and manageable. The downturn will mainly come from the damped consumer spending in Russia, Ukraine and other related markets. Coupled with the declined smartphone volumes, we expect global smartphone average wholesale price will keep rising facing the lengthened supply constrain and higher inflation rate, as well as higher logistics and related costs etc.

Under the worst scenario, worldwide energy crisis and global economy recession would be triggered. Global smartphone manufacture and supply chain will be massively disrupted as well. Global smartphone market will see a sharp fall in 2022.No regions and vendors are exceptional.