Strategy Analytics Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service issued the latest global smartphone shipment forecast report on March 2. In this version, we further lower 2020 global and China smartphone shipment forecast numbers, from the previous version published on Jan 30, 2020, given the latest available info and the escalating situation in more countries and regions.

We observed the coronavirus outbreak is spreading into more countries recent days. It is entering the phase two - China is largely under control and the situation has been improving, but the situation is escalating in many other countries, including South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran etc. 

The global market will ship -10% fewer smartphones than expected in 2020, due to the fear and “paralysis” caused by coronavirus. China smartphone shipments will be -15% less than expected in 2020. All regions will see an annual decline. If the death toll rises in coming weeks, we could see the stock market crash cross over to main street recession and even more dramatic losses for the industry.

No one wins. All major OEMs will take a hit and ship smartphones less than pre-coronavirus outbreak. OEMs face the disrupted supply chain and depressed consumer confidence and spending. Chinese OEMs' overseas expansion would be interrupted too.

We anticipate February / March is the peak of the panic and fear, and the virus will be contained after April / May. All industry stakeholders plan for a very soft H1 and modest recovery H2 2020.

If the crisis extends beyond April/May, if the situation further escalates and expands beyond stock market slumps to slowing economic growth, dramatically reduced consumer confidence, we can foresee recession driven declines in shipments above 10%.

We recommend device OEMs, operators and supply chain members will embark on bold new initiatives to convince consumers to buy and activate online.