The outbreak of novel coronavirus (in Wuhan) will hit the China and global economy during H1 2020. The smartphone market will be adversely impacted by the slowing GDP growth and the plunging consumer spending. It will also impact global smartphone supply and manufacturing, because China makes 70% of all smartphones sold on the planet. Any delay of operations for factories, by quarantine or travel restriction, will inevitably cause temporary labor-supply shortage.

In the latest published report under our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service, we forecast the global market will ship -2% fewer smartphones than expected in 2020, due to the fear and “paralysis” caused by coronavirus. China smartphone shipments will be -5% less than expected in 2020.  The biggest impact will hit China, but other connected economies will feel a ripple, like Japan or the US. 

Leading Chinese vendors, such as Huawei, OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi, are facing strong headwinds from coronavirus and we expect them to suffer badly at home in the first half of 2020.

We recommend semiconductor makers, operators, service and content providers, as well as related parties, closely monitor their channels and plan well ahead, to avoid inventory.