According to the latest forecast report from our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service: Global Smartphone Shipments Forecast by Vendor by Region by Quarter by Scenario, global smartphone market will maintain the downturn track in 2020 if the US-China trade war and the ban of Huawei continues, and the likelihood of global economic recession remains high. Under the worst case, we predict global smartphone shipment volume will down -3% YoY in 2020. However, the market would come back and rebound +3% YoY next year under the best case, in which we expect the likelihood of global economic recession remains low, US and China will sign a deal to ease the trade war, and the ban of Huawei will be lifted.

Samsung will remain as the largest smartphone vendor in 2020 in both scenarios, followed by Huawei and Apple. Under the worst case, we expect Huawei will see a big fall in overseas markets, but the resurgence in home market will offset the decline in overseas market to some degree. Huawei will survive and maintain as the second largest smartphone vendor in (after Samsung but ahead of Apple), thanks to the strong footprint in home market. China market alone would contribute to over 80% volume share in 2020.

To respond the US ban, Huawei has significantly reduced the reliance on the key components provided by US companies recent months. Meanwhile, the company is accelerating the development of Harmony OS and Huawei Mobile Service, which expect to replace Android and Google Mobile Service in the future if the ban continues. However, it is not like walking in a park to build up own mobile service and ecosystem. The Chinese company will face a uphill journey in 2020.