Facing the huge uncertainty around the US China trade war, as well as the US ban of Huawei, Strategy Analytics Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service formally publish the scenario model of global smartphone vendor shipment forecast by region by quarter report.

Scenario One : the US China trade war will continue and the US government will keep imposing higher tariff rate (25% or even higher) for all products manufactured and imported from China. Meanwhile, the US ban of Huawei will continue. Under this scenario, Huawei will face mounting headwinds and the shipments in major overseas markets will see a big fall in the following quarters. In addition to Samsung, who will be able to pick up and fill in the vacuum in different price tiers across different regions?

Scenario Two : the US China trade war will ease or terminate, and the higher tariff rate will be removed. Meanwhile, the US government will lift the ban of Huawei, which will be allowed to continue to purchase key components and software / IP licenses from US suppliers. Having this scenario, we expect Huawei will maintain the strong momentum across all regions (except North America) being the second largest smartphone vendor by annual volumes in 2019 and 2020. Huawei will further gain market share at the expense of Samsung and Apple, as well as a number of second tier OEMs and small players, such as LG and Sony etc.

This report forecasts global smartphone shipments by region by quarter for 30 of the world's largest vendors from 2015 to 2020 under two scenarios.  Global handset and feature phone shipment by vendor by quarter forecast scenario data are included in the report too. The report is a valuable tool for component makers, software developers, operators and other stakeholders to support their planning activities and closely track and measure how US-China trade war impact global smartphone market in 2019 and beyond.

WSS clients please click here to access the full report.