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Trump Administration National Security Budget - What are the Implications for Global Defense?

by Asif Anwar | Feb 27, 2018

The US Department of Defense (DoD) Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 budget request of $716 billion for national security incorporates $686 billion for the US DoD with major warfighting investments designed to enable capabilities across air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace domains, but how far do the current US plans for defense spending go towards significantly changing the global spending outlook?

Strategy Analytics current global defense forecast (Global Defense Spending Outlook 2016-2026) predicts spending will reach $2.41 trillion in 2026, representing a CAGR of 3.7%.

Our analysis suggested that the renewed emphasis by the Trump administration to renew US leadership across the world would translate to the US defense budget rising steadily over the short to medium term; this was reflected in the FY 2018 budget, and has been further cemented by the most recent FY 2019 budget request which incorporates $686 billion for the US DoD with a number of major warfighting investments across airborne, naval, ground and space platforms and systems.

The US fiscal year budgetary outlook shows strong agreement with Strategy Analytics’ US defense spending forecast, which is a testament to the robust methodology applied by Strategy Analytics.

However, this does mean that US defense spending will not have any measurable impact on the projected global defense spending profile, and the US will continue to see its share of global spending decline through 2026.

On the other hand, the US will remain the largest defense market in the world. Strategy Analytics model forecasts US defense spending will grow to $789.5 billion in 2026, and this will maintain momentum behind the US defense industry, sustaining growth for major suppliers like Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, as well as the enabling technology supply chain epitomized by companies such as Microsemi, Qorvo, Teledyne and Wolfspeed.

Thanks for reading!
FY 2019 US DoD Budget Major Program Investments
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