Ad spend is closely tied to economic activity (i.e., GDP). At this point it is a given that the global economy is pointed towards a recession, if not a full blown depression, and one of the first things to be cut in an economic downturns is advertising budgets. We also know that consumers are viewing more digital video as social distancing and quarantining go into effect. How this affects long-term viewing patterns, and thus ad spend, remains to be seen, however, it is likely that there will be some lasting effect.

In Strategy Analytics most recent Global Advertising Forecast (i.e., baseline forecast) we projected total ad spend to grow 5% in 2020, reaching $267.8B. This is no longer the case given COVID-19. While significant uncertainty exists  as to how much damage COVID-19 will ultimately inflict on the global  economy we have run several scenarios based upon different economic conditions.