Final F-35 production run could be one-fourth of 2011 baseline projections
Boston, MA - December 15, 2011 – The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fast-jet platform is the leading edge strike fighter of the moment. The Strategy Analytics Advanced Defense Systems (ADS) service report, “Production Scenarios for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II
,” outlines baseline 2011 projections and alternative scenarios that factor in the impact of rising program costs, production and testing delays, partner nation commitment, the US and global economics and budget constraints.
Representing the most optimistic—but arguably least realistic outcome for the F-35 program—Strategy Analytics analysis of the F-35 2011 baseline program projections points to a potential global production of 3,340 planes through 2036. Strategy Analytics has developed a range of alternate scenarios bracketed between the present expressed interest scenario and a lower, more limited production case
“Taking just the recent reduction in order quantity by the US DOD for F-35 fast-jets in 2012, and continued uncertainties in budget expenditures suggests continued shrinkage in the F-35 program,” notes Asif Anwar, Director of the ADS service. “Couple escalating platform costs and delayed deliveries with budgetary constraints at partner nations increases the risk for order reduction or order cancellation.”
“Strategy Analytics has developed a range of alternate scenarios, which include the possibility of a lower number of manufactured F-35 jets. This current environment fits a modeled projection of 2074 units produced through 2036—reducing production by 37.5 percent. Off course, early curtailment could be one option, as well, with production limited to as few as 877 units. Total cancellation of the F-35 program is unlikely,” concluded Mr. Anwar.